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Soccer Betting Tips

I’ve read somewhere that in order to become a successful soccer bettor, one needs to define goals and then strive to achieve them. That struck me as being just a bit on the phony side. Why on earth would one need to create a premise for chasing losses? Isn’t that what sports bettors are supposed to steer clear of as much as possible? If suppose you exceed your “set goal” what do you do then? Stop while on a heater? I then realized what the author of the article really meant as I read on. In soccer betting, it is important to bring a game plan to the table, a plan which is aimed at bankroll management basically. Come to think of it, every successful soccer bettor’s “game plan” should consist of two distinct parts: one aimed at securing positive long-term expected value (by taking advantage of the hidden value in various match-ups, by wagering online with a bookie who offers a generous bonus and some extremely thin vig etc), and a part which concerns bankroll management.

As an avid online poker player and sports bettor, I can see a whole bunch of similarities between the two activities. Online poker players strive to secure value at the table by playing optimally, minimizing their losses and maximizing their winnings through poker strategy. They also hunt bonuses and rake rebate deals like the enet rakeback or the ipoker rakeback, but ask any successful online poker player, he’ll tell you that securing value at the table is not enough for overall success. Bankroll management is a necessary ingredient too. The same goes for soccer betting. Why do these two factors need to work hand in hand? The explanation is quite simple: on account of the bookie’s vig, most soccer wagers are negative EV propositions, yes, even the spread-based ones.

The 1x2 bets feature a high natural negative EV, so one should definitely stay away from those. Skilled handicappers are able to take advantage of various hidden edges though to secure a marginal EV+. The presence of EV+ is by no means a guarantee of large profits though. It just means that if he keeps at it long enough, the player is guaranteed to win a little bit, instead of losing. The key word here is “long enough” though. Short term variance can eat up a bankroll way before the EV+ gets the chance to work its magic, that’s why one needs to manage his roll properly. If you were ever wondering why pros tell you to only wager around 3-5% of your bankroll on any single match-up, well this is it. Wagering any more will put your roll at risk from the variance, which will kill it even if you manage to find value and to exploit it consistently. This is where discipline comes into the picture and this is exactly what so many square bettors get wrong: they get greedy, they start chasing losses and they bust their roll in spite of their handicapping skills.
The bottom line: stay away from 1x2 wagers, do your homework and find that hidden value and stick to proper bankroll management. You can’t get it wrong.