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2014 World Cup Predictions

Every four years, when the football World Cup comes about, every football fan turns into an instant prediction-expert. Needless to say, on the layman level, most predictions are plagued by subjective factors such as national pride and loyalty as well as animosity towards other nations (we are after all talking about a battle of the national teams here). There are experts out there whose predictions are based on serious number-crunching though and who therefore have to be taken extremely seriously indeed. One such expert is Nate Silver, whose correct prediction of the last the US presidential elections’ winner in ALL 50 states turned him into something of an internet sensation. Silver has been in the statistics-based prediction business for a good few years, and it appears that the 2014 World Cup is among his interests as well. The prediction model he and his team devised for the World Cup is a complex one, based on the statistical analysis of national team performance, coupled with a much more detailed analysis of each player, and each team’s top lineup.

Here’s what Nate’s system (called the Soccer Power Index) came up with for the various groups and for the tournament as a whole, predictions-wise.



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Group A is likely to be dominated by Brazil. One doesn’t exactly have to be a master statistician to be able to tell that the level of talent lined up by the Cariocas coupled with the home field advantage makes them major favorites not just for getting past the group stages, but for winning the World Cup hands-down.

The other team statistically likely to qualify from Group A is Mexico, a slight favorite over Croatia, so the second spot is essentially up for grabs at the moment. Cameroon won’t make it.



Group B is an especially nasty one for Australia. The Aussies are pretty much set up to fail here, as Spain – the current world champions – are the favorites. Spain will be joined by either Chile or the Netherlands. Surprisingly, according to Nate’s SPI, the South Americans are marginal favorites over the Dutch.



Group C is one of the dullest of the tournament. Colombia are the favorites here, to be followed into the later stages of the event by Ivory Coast, at the expense of Japan and Greece.



Group D is a bit of hot mess too, featuring England, Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica. Interestingly, the team projected to win this group is Uruguay, and England is expected to advance too, although with Italy in the mix, there’s always room for surprises there.



France are set to dominate Group E, which also includes Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras. Switzerland are set to take second (of course, if the French team actually decides to show up for the games, otherwise the Swiss are slated to win the group), and although they have never personally impressed me, with Ecuador and Honduras in the mix, they may as well go all the way.



Group F is all about Argentina, obviously. With Iran, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Nigeria to deal with, Messi and his crew will probably use the group-stage as a warm-up for more difficult battles down the line. Bosnia-Herzegovina is the other team likely to qualify from the group.



Group G, dubbed the “group of death”, will see Germany square off against the US and Portugal for the two qualifying spots. Ghana’s presence is mere distraction for these three. Germany is the top favorite here, followed obviously by Portugal.



Group H is the worst of the tournament. With Russia, Belgium, South Korea and Algeria, it all looks like a race to the bottom. Belgium and Russia are expected to make it through this cellar-dweller fest.


Given that the World Cup is played in Brazil, statistically (they haven’t lost at home in 12 years), the home team are the obvious favorites to go all the way. Argentina, Germany and Spain are also among the favorites, although their odds are dwarfed by Brazil’s 45.2%.

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